The 2026/27 Hong Kong racing season begins with several major questions hanging over the sport, from the pressure on established names to the horses poised to challenge at Group 1 level.
David Hayes and Zac Purton face demanding campaigns with expectations high around Ka Ying Rising, while trainers and jockeys further down the standings will be looking to turn promising performances into sustained success. At the same time, the possible retirement of Romantic Warrior could leave an opening among Hong Kong’s middle distance and staying ranks.
Our racing panel of Michael Cox, David Morgan and Luke Middlebrook looks ahead to the horses, trainers and jockeys who could shape the season.
Who is under the most pressure?
Michael Cox believes trainer David Hayes and jockey Zac Purton carry the heaviest expectations heading into the new campaign.
Hayes has the leading sprinter Ka Ying Rising in his stable, while Purton is the horse’s regular rider. With Ka Ying Rising having established such a clear advantage over Hong Kong’s other sprinters, Cox believes defeat will inevitably bring intense scrutiny.
“Don’t let the cool exteriors fool you,” Cox said, pointing to Hayes’ decision to stick with his familiar brown suit while Ka Ying Rising continues his winning run.
For Purton, the equation is similarly straightforward. When a horse has separated itself so clearly from the rest of the division, there are few explanations when it fails to win. Injury is one. Rider error is another.
Champions such as Hayes and Purton are accustomed to pressure, but that does not mean expectations become easier to carry.
David Morgan takes a different view. He argues that pressure can be even greater for trainers fighting to establish themselves near the bottom of the championship.
Jimmy Ting finished last season with a major result when Little Paradise won the G3 Premier Cup Handicap. The gelding had already given Ting four wins earlier in the campaign, including the Hong Kong Classic Mile, but that success raised expectations.
Little Paradise subsequently failed in the Classic Cup and Derby, placing Ting under greater scrutiny.
The fact that the horse remains with Ting reflects the loyalty of owner Ko Kam Piu and the growing recognition of the ability of local Chinese trainers. Morgan points out that a decade ago, a horse in this position might have been moved to a more prominent stable.
The pressure has not disappeared, however.
Ting finished second from bottom in last season’s trainers’ championship with 17 wins. His stable is also the smallest in Hong Kong at present, with only 38 horses at the time of writing. Keeping Little Paradise and producing enough winners to move back up the standings will be a major task.
Luke Middlebrook identifies Pierre Ng as another trainer who needs a strong season.
Not long ago, Ng appeared destined to become one of Hong Kong’s leading trainers. He recorded 41 winners in his first season and improved to 69 in his second, leading the championship until Francis Lui overtook him by a single win in the final race.
His results have since declined. Ng recorded 40 winners the following season and dropped to 31 last term, finishing 14th. His strike rate fell to 5.8 percent, while his prize money dropped from HK$83.2 million to HK$53.6 million.
The departures of Galaxy Patch and Sagacious Life added to the concern. The two highest rated horses in his stable at the time left within four days in April.
Ng begins the new season with 53 horses. There were encouraging signs late last term, when he produced five winners across the four meetings before the season finale. Repeating that form early in the new campaign would provide an important boost.
Which horse without a Group 1 win can break through?
Cox selects Invincible Ibis, pointing to the careful way Mark Newnham has developed the horse.
Invincible Ibis arrived as an unraced import known as a Private Purchase Griffin. Rather than rushing him into the strongest company, Newnham allowed him to develop gradually, increasing his distance and rating as his confidence grew.
His progress culminated on BMW Hong Kong Derby day, when he produced a strong performance under Hugh Bowman.
Newnham could have thrown him straight into the QEII Cup against Romantic Warrior over the Derby distance. Instead, he chose the Champions Mile, where Invincible Ibis again finished strongly.
With Romantic Warrior potentially nearing the end of his career and Voyage Bubble having lost some of his previous form, Cox sees an opportunity for Invincible Ibis to establish himself among the division’s leading horses.
Morgan selects Numbers, particularly if Romantic Warrior is retired following concerns over his scan results.
The 2000 metre to 2400 metre division could become much thinner without Romantic Warrior. Even if the champion remains in training, Morgan expects he could have only two Group 1 appearances, potentially including the Hong Kong Cup and Saudi Cup.
Numbers raced seven times as a four year old last season and finished second in both the Hong Kong Derby over 2000 metres and the Group 1 Champions and Chater Cup over 2400 metres. His defeat in the latter came by only half a length to Romantic Warrior.
That makes him one of the most obvious members of the next generation of stayers.
Morgan expects Numbers to have a strong opportunity in the Group 1 Hong Kong Gold Cup over 2000 metres in February, followed by another chance in the Champions and Chater Cup in May.
Middlebrook chooses Fast Network, who will take his Group 1 ambitions to Japan.
The Dennis Yip trained sprinter is rated sixth in Hong Kong at 121. Every horse above him in the current ratings has already won a Group 1, leaving Fast Network as the highest rated Hong Kong horse still seeking his first victory at the level.
His record suggests he is capable of competing at that standard. He finished third in the Hong Kong Sprint, third in the Centenary Sprint Cup and fourth in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize last season.
Ka Ying Rising was involved in all three races.
Fast Network will have the opportunity to race without him in Japan. He is scheduled to use the G2 Centaur Stakes at Hanshin on September 6 as preparation for the G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama three weeks later.
A victory would make him only the third Hong Kong trained winner of the race after Silent Witness and Ultra Fantasy.
Which horse should target an overseas race?
Cox wants to see Helios Express race in Dubai.
He points to the example of Cape Of Good Hope, who repeatedly finished behind Silent Witness during the champion sprinter’s extraordinary 17 race winning streak. After six defeats by Silent Witness during the 2003/04 season, trainer David Oughton and owner James Alexander Carstairs looked overseas.
Cape Of Good Hope subsequently won Group 1 races in Australia and England.
Helios Express has been beaten by Ka Ying Rising 13 times since October 2024, but Cox believes the comparison is worth considering. Helios Express has remained highly consistent and could be suited by Dubai’s straight six furlong course because of his combination of speed and stamina.
An overseas Group 1 victory would also add something missing from John Size’s distinguished record. The trainer has already targeted the Al Quoz Sprint four times.
Morgan selects My Wish.
Mark Newnham’s miler finally secured his first Group 1 victory in April when he won the Champions Mile with his familiar late surge.
With that achievement now secured, Morgan believes My Wish should be given the chance to race abroad.
The G1 Dubai Turf over 1800 metres could suit him. Although most of his career has been over a mile, My Wish has already demonstrated that he can handle 1800 metres and came within a short head of winning the 2025 Hong Kong Derby over 2000 metres.
Middlebrook would like to see Colourful King given an overseas opportunity if his improvement continues.
The horse has shown ability over 1200 metres, but his record points strongly towards 1000 metres as his preferred distance. All six of his career victories have come over 1000 metres, including four in Hong Kong and two in Australia before his import.
The problem is the limited number of suitable races in Hong Kong. The Sha Tin straight course offers only two Group races over 1000 metres throughout the season.
Trainer David Eustace has already described the programme as restrictive for a horse of Colourful King’s type and believes the straight course suits him perfectly.
Purton has compared the horse with Little Bridge, who used success over Sha Tin’s straight course as a springboard before winning the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2012.
Which jockey can climb the championship standings?
Cox believes Brenton Avdulla is due a significant improvement.
Avdulla finished 16th in last season’s jockeys’ championship with 21 wins, a major drop from the 47 winners and fourth place he achieved the previous season. He had recorded 33 wins and finished inside the top ten during his first full season in Hong Kong.
The Australian is a former Sydney champion and possesses a riding style that should suit Hong Kong.
Cox believes the main problem has been opportunity. Tony Cruz and John Size had previously provided him with regular support, but that backing declined and his number of rides fell.
A wider group of trainers could change the picture. If Avdulla can build stronger relationships with local trainers, Cox believes a return to the top ten is possible.
Morgan selects Jimmy Orman.
Orman arrived in Hong Kong for a short stint in February 2025 and recorded 13 wins. That performance earned him a full season and he responded with 32 wins last term, finishing 10th in the championship.
He recorded 24 wins at Sha Tin. If he can attract more support at Happy Valley, Morgan believes Orman can pass 40 wins and push towards the top six or seven.
Middlebrook identifies Matthew Chadwick as another jockey with plenty of room to improve.
Chadwick recorded only 12 winners last season, down from 35 the previous campaign. Remarkably, just one of those victories came after Christmas.
His previous record shows that the ability is there. Chadwick won 55 races when he claimed the Tony Cruz Award in 2021/22 and has long been regarded as one of Hong Kong’s leading local riders.
He spent part of the off season back on the Gold Coast, where his career began, hoping to reconnect with the horses and rediscover his enjoyment of racing.
The results were modest, with one winner from seven rides, but the real test comes in Hong Kong.
Chadwick needs to rebuild early momentum, attract greater support from trainers and make himself a regular option for competitive rides.
Who is the early Derby pick?
Cox points to Monopolistic, a horse from the Queensland Derby who has yet to receive a Hong Kong name and carries brand number M066.
The horse gives John Size an unusual opportunity to work with an established runner rather than developing an unraced import from a low rating.
Size has built much of his reputation by taking Private Purchase Griffins from modest ratings to the top level. Working with a horse that arrives with established form and a high rating presents a different challenge.
Monopolistic is one of five horses to arrive in Hong Kong from the Queensland Derby and could become a genuine BMW Hong Kong Derby prospect.
Morgan’s early choice is Generic, one of a group of British and Irish imports that arrived in Hong Kong on August 15.
Generic was purchased by Johnson Chen, the owner of Werther, and will be trained by first season Hong Kong trainer James Cummings.
The four year old has raced only four times, winning twice and finishing second twice. His form includes a second to Constitution River, who went on to win the French Derby and Eclipse Stakes at Group 1 level.
Generic also won the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, beating Glacius, who later won the G1 Saratoga Derby.
His pedigree adds to the appeal. He is by Kameko, whose progeny tend to perform well on quicker ground, and he was already a gelding before beginning his racing career.
Middlebrook takes a much earlier and riskier view with Mr Incredible.
The Brett Crawford trained four year old has never raced beyond 1200 metres, but Middlebrook points out that Invincible Ibis had also not raced at longer distances at this stage last season.
Mr Incredible ended last season with three wins from four starts. His final victory came in Class 3, where he beat older rivals by one and three quarters of a length as a heavily backed 1.2 favourite.
He possesses an uncomplicated racing style, settles well, travels comfortably and has a strong turn of foot.
Crawford believes the horse can handle an increase in distance and plans to resume him over 1400 metres.
Whether Mr Incredible can eventually handle the Derby distance remains unanswered, but Middlebrook believes ability can take a horse a long way.
Which jockey should receive a short term stint?
Cox would like to see Indian champion Suraj Narredu given an opportunity in Hong Kong.
He believes Narredu could bring a new audience to Hong Kong racing while also proving his ability against the demanding local field.
Cox also points to young Australian riders. Zac Lloyd is an obvious candidate, while Dylan Gibbons and Tyler Schiller could also benefit from a Hong Kong stint. More experienced riders such as Tim Clark and Rachel King would offer another option.
Morgan chooses Cieren Fallon.
At 27, Fallon combines experience with room for further development. He has nine seasons behind him, three Group 1 victories and more than 600 career wins.
He recorded 136 wins in Britain last year and has 66 wins in the current championship, with 88 victories for the calendar year to date. In May alone, he won 21 races from 79 rides.
Fallon is closely associated with William Haggas and could potentially be available after the British turf season ends in late October and before returning to Newmarket for the next campaign.
Middlebrook would like to see Billy Loughnane take on Hong Kong.
The young British jockey has attracted considerable attention during the Flat season, but Hong Kong would provide a very different test.
Happy Valley, in particular, demands precision. The turns are tight, the straight is short and races can develop at extraordinary speed.
A jockey can lose a position after being caught wide, shuffled back during a slowdown or waiting too long for a gap. Once that happens, there may be little time or space to recover.
Loughnane has already demonstrated his ability on major stages in Britain. Hong Kong would show how quickly he can adapt to one of racing’s most demanding environments.
What headline would you most like to see this season?
For Cox, the preferred headline is simple: “Romantic Warrior retires sound.”
Recent scans found an abnormality in a joint, and the horse has already undergone surgery once.
Romantic Warrior has earned more prize money than any racehorse in history and has achieved an extraordinary record. If his next appearance comes at a retirement ceremony in the Sha Tin parade ring, Cox believes fans would accept the decision with relief as well as admiration for what the horse has accomplished.
Morgan wants to see another headline: “Ka Ying Rising Does It Again.”
The sprinter is already regarded as one of the greatest in the sport, and a second Everest victory would add another major achievement to his record.
Morgan would also like to see further success at Conghua and another Hong Kong Sprint victory.
For Middlebrook, the headline he wants most is “Jerry Chau lands first Group 1.”
Chau recorded 48 winners last season and won his first Tony Cruz Award. He has already won at Group 2 level.
The next step is not simply adding more victories. It is securing the right opportunity in one of Hong Kong’s biggest races and converting it into a first Group 1 win.
That breakthrough would give the 2026/27 season another storyline to watch as Hong Kong’s established champions face a new generation determined to take their place at the top.