Aidan O’Brien could have three runners in Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, but the weather at ParisLongchamp may determine whether his leading contender Diamond Necklace takes her place in France’s biggest autumn race.
Diamond Necklace, Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk are currently entered for the 2,400 metre Group 1 contest. O’Brien, however, does not want the ground to become too soft, particularly for Diamond Necklace, who would have the option of dropping back in distance for the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera Longines over 2,000 metres.
The uncertainty comes after an unsettled preparation for the Ballydoyle team. All three horses arrive at Longchamp following defeats, with Diamond Necklace and Benvenuto Cellini suffering results that were particularly difficult to anticipate.
Ground Could Decide Diamond Necklace’s Race
The going at Longchamp was described as good on Monday after the Paris track went without rain since September 8. That would suit O’Brien’s plans, although forecasts pointed towards good to soft conditions by Sunday.
The trainer wants to see how the weather develops before deciding where Diamond Necklace will run.
“Diamond Necklace has an option of going to the fillies’ race on the same day, but at the moment, we’re looking at going with the three,” O’Brien said during a France Galop organised press conference on Monday.
Diamond Necklace has already established herself as one of the leading fillies of her generation. She won the Group 1 Prix de Diane earlier this season and had been considered a leading candidate for the Arc before her unbeaten record ended at Deauville.
She was beaten by Aventure in the Group 1 Prix Jean et Louis Romanet. The result altered the picture surrounding the Arc and raised fresh questions about how Diamond Necklace would handle a step up to 2,400 metres.
O’Brien admitted he had underestimated both the conditions at Deauville and Aventure’s ability.
“I was kind of just looking for a race that would fill in between this weekend and that weekend, and I didn’t really want to go a mile and a half with her,” he said.
The trainer explained that the team had considered running Diamond Necklace in the Prix Vermeille but worried that a 2,400 metre race on softer ground could leave her short of her best for the Arc.
“We were afraid if we did it in the Vermeille, we might harm her for the Arc,” O’Brien said.
The decision meant keeping her at 2,000 metres for her preparation race, a choice O’Brien now believes may have been influenced by an incorrect assessment of the opposition and conditions.
“We just thought we’d be safer to keep her at a mile and a quarter for a trial and obviously we misjudged it a little bit,” he said.
Benvenuto Cellini Arrives After Arc Trial Defeat
Benvenuto Cellini also enters the Arc after a disappointing preparation run.
The Irish Derby winner finished fifth as the odds on favourite in the Group 2 Prix Niel, one of the traditional trials for the Longchamp showpiece.
His performance has added another layer of uncertainty to O’Brien’s challenge. A horse arriving at the Arc after an unexpected defeat has less momentum than connections would have wanted, particularly when facing a field containing proven Group 1 performers.
The Ballydoyle team also endured concerns through late August and much of September over what was described as a low grade virus. O’Brien’s runners have therefore not enjoyed the straightforward build up that might normally be expected before a race of this importance.
Minnie Hauk Still Chasing Another Arc Challenge
Minnie Hauk was once the clearest Ballydoyle candidate for this year’s Arc.
She finished second to Daryz in last year’s race and began the season with the expectation that she would return to Longchamp for another attempt at the 2,400 metre contest.
Her recent form, however, has been difficult to ignore. Minnie Hauk has lost her last four races.
O’Brien attributed some of those performances to problems with her feet.
“Niggly trouble with corns in her feet,” he said.
Despite that record, O’Brien insists Minnie Hauk is now in good condition and stressed that the Arc had always been the target.
“But she is in good form,” he said. “The Arc was always the plan. So, we were never going to see the best of her until the Arc.”
The strategy reflects the difficulty of timing a horse’s preparation for a major race. O’Brien said the intention had always been to have Minnie Hauk reach her peak at Longchamp rather than earlier in the season.
Ryan Moore Faces Three Way Choice
The jockey arrangements are also yet to be settled.
Ryan Moore has first choice among O’Brien’s three runners. Christophe Soumillon is expected to take the second pick, while Pierre Charles Boudot is also in contention for the remaining ride.
O’Brien suggested that Moore would probably choose Diamond Necklace.
“Ryan has the choice of the three, so I’m not sure, but I would probably think Diamond Necklace would be,” he said.
The final decision could depend on the ground and Diamond Necklace’s intended race. If conditions become too soft for her to take her chance in the Arc, the Prix de l’Opera would provide an alternative at 2,000 metres.
O’Brien’s Arc Record Offers Perspective
O’Brien has already won the Arc twice, with Dylan Thomas and Found.
Neither horse was the shortest priced runner in the race. Dylan Thomas started at 11/2, while Found was sent off at 6/1. Both were behind shorter priced favourites in the betting.
That history provides some perspective as O’Brien prepares another team for Longchamp.
His leading market choices have not always delivered. High Chaparral finished third in consecutive Arc attempts when starting at 13/8 and 11/5. Camelot finished seventh as the 2/1 favourite, while Minnie Hauk finished second last year at 7/2.
The Arc has repeatedly shown how little can be taken for granted. Previous reputation and betting position do not guarantee success over the demanding Longchamp course.
For this year’s Ballydoyle team, the immediate question is whether the conditions will allow Diamond Necklace to take her chance over the full 2,400 metres.
Racing History: Dettori’s Seven Wins and Urban Sea’s Shock
The week also carries several notable dates in racing history.
On September 28, 1996, Frankie Dettori produced one of the most memorable performances of his career at Ascot when he won all seven races on the card.
His winners were Wall Street, Diffident, Mark Of Esteem, Decorated Hero, Fatefully, Lochangel and Fujiyama Crest. The achievement helped turn the Italian jockey into a household name across Britain.
Two years earlier in racing history, on September 30, 1898, American jockey Tod Sloan won five consecutive races at Newmarket.
October 3, 1993 also remains an important date for Arc followers. Urban Sea won the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp at odds of 37/1.
The four year old had already shown considerable ability, finishing third in the Prix de Diane the previous year, but she had not won above Group 3 level before her Arc triumph.
Her victory proved to be the beginning of an extraordinary legacy. Urban Sea later became one of the most influential broodmares of the modern era. Her offspring included Galileo, Sea The Stars, Black Sam Bellamy and My Typhoon, as well as the Classic placed horses Melikah, All Too Beautiful and Born To Sea.
Another important date comes on October 4, 1989, when Secretariat, the 1973 United States Triple Crown winner, died at Claiborne Farm in Kentucky at the age of 19 after suffering severe laminitis.
Global Blackbook: Diana Maria Shows Promise
Japan also provides an interesting prospect through Diana Maria, a daughter of Marialite who made an impressive debut at Nakayama last weekend.
Marialite became famous after winning the 2016 Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen at odds of 24/1. She defeated two major stars, Kitasan Black and Duramente, after showing considerable determination in the closing stages.
Her story has also entered the Umamusume universe. Because of licensing issues surrounding her name, the character based on Marialite is known as River Light.
Diana Maria appears to have inherited some of her mother’s toughness.
The two year old Maurice filly raced close to the rail under Christophe Lemaire before being switched out as she entered the home straight. She then battled strongly against Suave Basileus, a son of Kitasan Black.
The pair pulled seven lengths clear of the third horse.
Diana Maria is not a big filly, but her pedigree and attitude could compensate for her size. Her debut performance suggested that she may have a promising future.
Turnbull Stakes Offers Strong Australian Field
The next major fixture comes at Flemington on October 3 for Turnbull Stakes Day.
Sir Delius is expected to be among the leading contenders for the 2,000 metre feature after winning the race last year. The five year old, trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, finished fourth first up in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over a mile.
That race was shorter than his preferred distance, and his connections expect him to improve with the extra preparation.
Sir Delius is continuing towards the Group 1 Cox Plate, but he could face several high class rivals at Flemington.
Aeliana, recent Group 1 Underwood Stakes winner Birdman and Autumn Boy from the Chris Waller stable are among those expected to feature. Western Australian raider Cosmic Crusader and Group 1 Melbourne Cup winner Half Yours could also add strength to the field.
Blue Bolt Targets Another Group 1 Victory
At Newmarket on October 3, Blue Bolt will attempt to extend her unbeaten campaign in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes over a mile.
The Andrew Balding trained Juddmonte homebred has won all five of her starts this season.
City Of Memphis, who finished second to Blue Bolt in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, could provide another test.
Precise, runner up to Blue Bolt in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild and Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, is another possible opponent.
Fallen Angel could also take part. The Karl Burke trained mare has not won since finishing second to Blue Bolt in last year’s Sun Chariot Stakes, although she showed enough in her latest start to remain a threat after finishing third in the Matron Stakes.
Arc Field Takes Shape at ParisLongchamp
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe takes centre stage at ParisLongchamp on October 4.
Daryz, last year’s winner, is expected to start among the leading contenders as he attempts to retain his title over 2,400 metres.
William Haggas also has Maltese Cross, while Andrew Balding is set to be represented by King George winner Kalpana. Kalpana arrives after winning the Yorkshire Oaks and enters the race in strong recent form.
Japan could have two runners in Meisho Tabaru and Admire Terra. Meisho Tabaru has already won the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen twice and could become particularly interesting if the ground remains on the quicker side.
The track has been watered, however, and conditions are expected to be no faster than good to soft.
For O’Brien, the weather forecast therefore remains more than a minor detail. It could decide whether Diamond Necklace lines up against the best horses in Europe over 2,400 metres or switches to the Prix de l’Opera at 2,000 metres.
With Moore yet to select his mount and the ground still uncertain, when will O’Brien make the final call on his Arc team?